Virginia House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Elaine G. Luria a 57% chance of winning the Virginia House 2022 primary. Jen A. Kiggans won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Elaine G. Luria — 57% model odds
  2. Jen A. Kiggans — 43% model odds (won)
  3. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts