Texas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Michelle Vallejo an 82% chance of winning the Texas House 2022 primary. Monica De La Cruz won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Michelle Vallejo — 82% model odds
  2. Monica De La Cruz — 18% model odds (won)
  3. Ross Lynn Leone — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts