South Dakota Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John R. Thune an 88% chance of winning the South Dakota Senate 2022 primary. John R. Thune won, matching the model's top pick.

1. John R. Thune — 88% model odds (won)
2. Brian L. Bengs — 12% model odds
3. Tamara J. Lesnar — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts