Pennsylvania Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John K. Fetterman a 65% chance of winning the Pennsylvania Senate 2022 primary. John K. Fetterman won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. John K. Fetterman — 65% model odds (won)
  2. Mehmet Oz — 18% model odds
  3. Richard L. Weiss — 18% model odds
  4. Erik Gerhardt — 0% model odds
  5. Daniel Wassmer — 0% model odds
  6. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts