Pennsylvania House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mike Kelly a 57% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2022 primary. Mike Kelly won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Mike Kelly — 57% model odds (won)
  2. Dan Pastore — 43% model odds
  3. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts