Pennsylvania House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mike Doyle an 87% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2022 primary. Summer Lee won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Mike Doyle — 87% model odds
  2. Summer Lee — 13% model odds (won)
  3. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts