Pennsylvania House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ashley Ehasz a 69% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2022 primary. Brian Fitzpatrick won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Ashley Ehasz — 69% model odds
  2. Brian Fitzpatrick — 31% model odds (won)
  3. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts