Oregon Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Joe Rae Perkins a 42% chance of winning the Oregon Senate 2022 primary. Ron Wyden won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Joe Rae Perkins — 42% model odds
  2. Chris Henry — 42% model odds
  3. Ron Wyden — 16% model odds (won)
  4. Dan Pulju — 0% model odds
  5. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts