Oregon House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Alek Skarlatos a 45% chance of winning the Oregon House 2022 primary. Val Hoyle won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Alek Skarlatos — 45% model odds
  2. Mike Beilstein — 45% model odds
  3. Val Hoyle — 10% model odds (won)
  4. Levi Leatherberry — 0% model odds
  5. Jim Howard — 0% model odds
  6. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts