New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Claudia Tenney a 41% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Claudia Tenney won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Claudia Tenney — 41% model odds (won)
2. Claudia Tenney — 41% model odds
3. Steven Holden — 19% model odds
4. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts