New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Elise M. Stefanik a 41% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Elise M. Stefanik won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Elise M. Stefanik — 41% model odds (won)
  2. Elise M. Stefanik — 41% model odds
  3. Matt Castelli — 9% model odds
  4. Matt Castelli — 9% model odds
  5. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts