New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Josh Riley a 40% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. Marcus Molinaro won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Josh Riley — 40% model odds
  2. Marcus Molinaro — 30% model odds (won)
  3. Marcus Molinaro — 30% model odds
  4. Josh Riley — 0% model odds
  5. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts