New York House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Robert P. Zimmerman a 79% chance of winning the New York House 2022 primary. George A.D. Santos won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Robert P. Zimmerman — 79% model odds
  2. George A.D. Santos — 11% model odds (won)
  3. George A.D. Santos — 11% model odds
  4. Robert P. Zimmerman — 0% model odds
  5. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts