New Mexico House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Yvette Herrell a 56% chance of winning the New Mexico House 2022 primary. Gabriel Vasquez won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Yvette Herrell — 56% model odds
  2. Gabriel Vasquez — 44% model odds (won)
  3. Eliseo Luna — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts