California House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Elan Carr a 45% chance of winning the California House 2014 primary. Elan Carr won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Elan Carr — 45% model odds (won)
2. Kevin Mottus — 24% model odds
3. Lily Gilani — 19% model odds (won)
4. Michael Ian Sachs — 12% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts