New Jersey House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tom Malinowski a 63% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2022 primary. Thomas H., Jr. Kean won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Tom Malinowski — 63% model odds
  2. Thomas H., Jr. Kean — 37% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts