New Jersey House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Christopher H. Smith a 79% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2022 primary. Christopher H. Smith won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Christopher H. Smith — 79% model odds (won)
  2. Matthew Jenkins — 21% model odds
  3. Jason Cullen — 0% model odds
  4. David Schmidt — 0% model odds
  5. Hank Schroeder — 0% model odds
  6. Pam Daniels — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts