North Carolina Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Cheri Beasley a 46% chance of winning the North Carolina Senate 2022 primary. Ted Budd won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Cheri Beasley — 46% model odds
  2. Ted Budd — 37% model odds (won)
  3. Matthew Patrick Hoh — 17% model odds
  4. Shannon W. Bray — 0% model odds
  5. Scattered — 0% model odds
  6. Michelle Estelle Lewis — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts