Montana House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Matt Rosendale a 95% chance of winning the Montana House 2022 primary. Matt Rosendale won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Matt Rosendale — 95% model odds (won)
  2. Penny Ronning — 5% model odds
  3. Gary Buchanan — 0% model odds
  4. Sam Rankin — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts