California House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Paul Chabot a 40% chance of winning the California House 2014 primary. Paul Chabot won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Paul Chabot — 40% model odds (won)
2. Lesli Gooch — 39% model odds (won)
3. Ryan Downing — 21% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts