Kentucky Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Rand Paul an 82% chance of winning the Kentucky Senate 2022 primary. Rand Paul won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Rand Paul — 82% model odds (won)
  2. Charles Booker — 18% model odds
  3. Charles Lee Thomason — 0% model odds
  4. Billy Ray Wilson — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts