Illinois Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tammy Duckworth a 92% chance of winning the Illinois Senate 2022 primary. Tammy Duckworth won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Tammy Duckworth — 92% model odds (won)
  2. Kathy Salvi — 8% model odds
  3. Bill Redpath — 0% model odds
  4. Lowell Martin Seida — 0% model odds
  5. Constant 'Connor' Vlakancic — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts