Hawaii Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Brian Schatz a 100% chance of winning the Hawaii Senate 2022 primary. Brian Schatz won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Brian Schatz — 100% model odds (won)
  2. Bob Mcdermott — 0% model odds
  3. Feena M. Bonoan — 0% model odds
  4. Emma Jane A. Pohlman — 0% model odds
  5. Dan Decker — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts