Florida Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Val Demings a 51% chance of winning the Florida Senate 2022 primary. Marco Rubio won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Val Demings — 51% model odds
  2. Marco Rubio — 49% model odds (won)
  3. Dennis Misigoy — 0% model odds
  4. Steven B. Grant — 0% model odds
  5. Tuan Tq Nguyen — 0% model odds
  6. Edward A. Gray — 0% model odds
  7. Uloma Uma Ekpete — 0% model odds
  8. Moses Quiles — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts