Arizona House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tom O'Halleran a 69% chance of winning the Arizona House 2022 primary. Eli Crane won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Tom O'Halleran — 69% model odds
  2. Eli Crane — 31% model odds (won)
  3. Chris Sarappo — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts