Arkansas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave French Hill a 79% chance of winning the Arkansas House 2022 primary. French Hill won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. French Hill — 79% model odds (won)
  2. Quintessa Hathaway — 21% model odds
  3. Michael White — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts