Alaska Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Lisa Murkowski a 33% chance of winning the Alaska Senate 2022 primary. Lisa Murkowski won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Lisa Murkowski — 33% model odds (won)
2. Kelly C. Tshibaka — 33% model odds
3. Buzz A. Kelley — 30% model odds
4. Patricia R. Chesbro — 4% model odds
5. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts