Alaska House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Sarah Palin a 36% chance of winning the Alaska House 2022 primary. Mary S. Peltola won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Sarah Palin — 36% model odds
  2. Nick Begich — 36% model odds
  3. Mary S. Peltola — 28% model odds (won)
  4. Chris # Bye — 0% model odds
  5. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts