Texas House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Joaquin Castro a 94% chance of winning the Texas House 2020 primary. Joaquin Castro won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Joaquin Castro — 94% model odds (won)
  2. Mauro Garza — 6% model odds
  3. Jeffrey Blunt — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts