Oregon Senate 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Joe Rae Perkins a 42% chance of winning the Oregon Senate 2020 primary. Jeff Merkley won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Joe Rae Perkins — 42% model odds
  2. Ibrahim A. Taher — 42% model odds
  3. Jeff Merkley — 16% model odds (won)
  4. Gary Dye — 0% model odds
  5. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts