Oregon House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Alek Skarlatos an 81% chance of winning the Oregon House 2020 primary. Peter Defazio won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Alek Skarlatos — 81% model odds
  2. Peter Defazio — 19% model odds (won)
  3. Daniel Hoffay — 0% model odds
  4. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts