New York House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tom Reed a 39% chance of winning the New York House 2020 primary. Tom Reed won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Tom Reed — 39% model odds (won)
2. Tom Reed — 39% model odds
3. Tom Reed — 11% model odds
4. Tracy Mitrano — 11% model odds
5. Tracy Mitrano — 0% model odds
6. Andrew M. Kolstee — 0% model odds
7. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts