New York House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Elise M. Stefanik a 47% chance of winning the New York House 2020 primary. Elise M. Stefanik won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Elise M. Stefanik — 47% model odds (won)
2. Elise M. Stefanik — 47% model odds
3. Elise M. Stefanik — 5% model odds
4. Tedra L. Cobb — 0% model odds
5. Tedra L. Cobb — 0% model odds
6. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts