New York House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Paul D. Tonko a 50% chance of winning the New York House 2020 primary. Paul D. Tonko won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Paul D. Tonko — 50% model odds (won)
  2. Paul D. Tonko — 50% model odds
  3. Paul D. Tonko — 0% model odds
  4. Elizabeth L. Joy — 0% model odds
  5. Elizabeth L. Joy — 0% model odds
  6. Elizabeth L. Joy — 0% model odds
  7. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts