New Mexico House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Deb Haaland an 89% chance of winning the New Mexico House 2020 primary. Deb Haaland won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Deb Haaland — 89% model odds (won)
  2. Michelle Garcia Holmes — 11% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts