New Jersey House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Christopher H. Smith a 92% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2020 primary. Christopher H. Smith won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Christopher H. Smith — 92% model odds (won)
  2. Stephanie Schmid — 8% model odds
  3. Hank Schroeder — 0% model odds
  4. Michael J. Rufo — 0% model odds
  5. Andrew Pachuta — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts