North Carolina Senate 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Cal Cunningham a 56% chance of winning the North Carolina Senate 2020 primary. Thom Tilllis won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Cal Cunningham — 56% model odds
  2. Thom Tilllis — 44% model odds (won)
  3. Shannon W. Bray — 0% model odds
  4. Kevin E. Hayes — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts