California House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave A. J. "Desmond" Thorsson a 38% chance of winning the California House 2014 primary. A. J. "Desmond" Thorsson won, matching the model's top pick.

1. A. J. "Desmond" Thorsson — 38% model odds (won)
2. Frank Lara — 31% model odds (won)
3. Jim Welles — 31% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts