Michigan House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jon Hoadley a 70% chance of winning the Michigan House 2020 primary. Fred Upton won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Jon Hoadley — 70% model odds
  2. Fred Upton — 15% model odds (won)
  3. John Lawrence — 15% model odds
  4. Jeff Depoy — 0% model odds
  5. Jerry Solis — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts