Iowa House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Abby Finkenauer a 60% chance of winning the Iowa House 2020 primary. Ashley Hinson won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Abby Finkenauer — 60% model odds
  2. Ashley Hinson — 40% model odds (won)
  3. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts