West Virginia Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Patrick Morrisey a 79% chance of winning the West Virginia Senate 2018 primary. Joseph, Iii Manchin won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Patrick Morrisey — 79% model odds
  2. Joseph, Iii Manchin — 21% model odds (won)
  3. Rusty Hollen — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts