West Virginia Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective
The model's final pre-election forecast gave Patrick Morrisey a 79% chance of winning the West Virginia Senate 2018 primary. Joseph, Iii Manchin won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.
- Patrick Morrisey — 79% model odds
- Joseph, Iii Manchin — 21% model odds (won)
- Rusty Hollen — 0% model odds