Virginia House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Abigail A. Spanberger a 56% chance of winning the Virginia House 2018 primary. Abigail A. Spanberger won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Abigail A. Spanberger — 56% model odds (won)
2. David A. Brat — 44% model odds
3. Joseph B. Walton — 0% model odds
4. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts