Pennsylvania Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Bob, Jr. Casey a 68% chance of winning the Pennsylvania Senate 2018 primary. Bob, Jr. Casey won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Bob, Jr. Casey — 68% model odds (won)
2. Lou Barletta — 16% model odds
3. Neal Gale — 16% model odds
4. Dale R., Jr. Kerns — 0% model odds
5. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts