Arizona House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave José Peñalosa a 40% chance of winning the Arizona House 2014 primary. Rebecca Dewitt won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. José Peñalosa — 40% model odds
  2. Rebecca Dewitt — 15% model odds (won)
  3. Gary Dunn — 15% model odds
  4. Gustavo Ortega — 15% model odds
  5. Samuel Esquivel — 15% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts