New York House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Christopher C. Collins a 24% chance of winning the New York House 2018 primary. Nathan D. Mcmurray won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Christopher C. Collins — 24% model odds
  2. Christopher C. Collins — 24% model odds
  3. Nathan D. Mcmurray — 24% model odds (won)
  4. Larry Piegza — 24% model odds
  5. Christopher C. Collins — 6% model odds
  6. Nathan D. Mcmurray — 0% model odds
  7. Nathan D. Mcmurray — 0% model odds
  8. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts