New York House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John M. Katko a 24% chance of winning the New York House 2018 primary. Dana Balter won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. John M. Katko — 24% model odds
2. John M. Katko — 24% model odds
3. John M. Katko — 24% model odds
4. Dana Balter — 22% model odds (won)
5. John M. Katko — 6% model odds
6. Dana Balter — 0% model odds
7. Dana Balter — 0% model odds
8. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts