New York House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Paul D. Tonko an 89% chance of winning the New York House 2018 primary. Paul D. Tonko won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Paul D. Tonko — 89% model odds (won)
2. Paul D. Tonko — 11% model odds
3. Paul D. Tonko — 0% model odds
4. Paul D. Tonko — 0% model odds
5. Francis J. Vitollo — 0% model odds
6. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts