New York House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Dan Donovan a 21% chance of winning the New York House 2018 primary. Max N. Rose won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Dan Donovan — 21% model odds
2. Dan Donovan — 21% model odds
3. Dan Donovan — 21% model odds
4. Max N. Rose — 20% model odds (won)
5. Henry J. Bardel — 10% model odds
6. Dan Donovan — 6% model odds
7. Max N. Rose — 0% model odds
8. Max N. Rose — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts