Missouri House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jason Smith a 95% chance of winning the Missouri House 2018 primary. Jason Smith won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Jason Smith — 95% model odds (won)
  2. Kathy Ellis — 5% model odds
  3. Jonathan L. Shell — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts