Arizona House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Martha Mcsally a 90% chance of winning the Arizona House 2014 primary. Martha Mcsally won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Martha Mcsally — 90% model odds (won)
2. Chuck Wooten — 7% model odds
3. Shelley Kais — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts